Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Oct 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Oct 070
- Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 10/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05