Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20,L088), which rotated
off of the west limb, produced an M1/1f at 15/2235Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (17 –
19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (17 November). By day two
and three (18 – 19 November), the field is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection observed late
on 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 142
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-007/007-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 06/10/10
Minor storm 02/02/02
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 16/17/17
Minor storm 17/22/22
Major-severe storm 10/13/13