Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1126 (S32E20)
produced a few small B-class flares. New Region 1127 (N25E71)
rotated onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance of a C-class flare from Region 1126
over the next three days (17-19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19
November).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 092
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/40
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/40
Minor storm 20/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05