Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W78) continues to decay, presently a one spot HSX, alpha. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1008.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Two active periods were observed from 0000 to 0600 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Nov 068
• Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01