Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 974 was designated in position N12W04 as spot class BXO, magnetic class beta. A slow moving CME was observed on the southwest limb at approximately 16/1100Z. This CME appears to have originated on the backside of the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one unsettled period. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s due to a geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, November 17 – 19.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Nov 071
• Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01