Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08E28) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C2.3 at 15/2110Z and a C5.9 at 16/1213Z. The region developed more spots in the interior, but remains a beta-gamma spot group. A small filament, centered at N12W10, erupted at 16/1436Z and appears to be associated with a slow CME first observed in LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

• Class M 50/50/50
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Nov 094
• Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 007/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/008-007/005-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01