Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 700
(N04W67) was limited to the production of lesser B and C-class
flares this period, the largest was a C1.4/Sf event that occurred at
16/0013Z. Sunspot area continues to grow as dominant penumbral
spots in both polarities increase in size. The beta-gamma magnetic
structure remains intact. A CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO imagery
on the northeast solar limb which appears to have been from a
back-sided source region. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit continues settling to background levels from the event that
ended on 13 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
- Class M 10/10/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Nov 108
- Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 115/120/125
- 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 004/008-004/008-002/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
