Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 16, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35)
produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region
continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little
threat of major flare. Last solar rotation’s Regions 486 and 488
are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and
intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance.
Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate
last major eruption on the 13th of November.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares
throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous
rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential
even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very
small chance to produce X-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in
excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field
variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to
minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole
which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to
be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

  • Class M 40/50/50
  • Class X 05/05/10
  • Proton 05/05/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Nov 104
  • Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 105/125/150
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 021/040
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 025/032
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 025/035-020/030-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 35/35/15
  • Major-severe storm 20/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 35/25/30
  • Major-severe storm 25/25/20

SpaceRef staff editor.