Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 131
Predicted 17 May-19 May 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 16 May 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01