Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N08W64) produced a C4 event at 15/2334Z. An associated CME was
first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0024Z and had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 250 km/s. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. New Region 1216 (S14E66) was numbered today and is
considered an Hsx group at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (17-19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 15/1800Z due the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for day one (17 May). A decline from quiet to unsettled to
mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19
May) as the CH HSS gradually subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 092
Predicted 17 May-19 May 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 16 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01