Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (17 – 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (17 – 19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 069
Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 May 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/006-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01