Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 16 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18W09) was
quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the forecast period (17-19
May).

III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 074
Predicted 17 May-19 May 075/075/074
90 Day Mean 16 May 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01