Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 May. On 18 and 19 May, geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 May 072
• Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/075
• 90 Day Mean 16 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/008-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/25
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05