Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 16, 2004
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 609 (S03W19)
remains the largest active region currently on the disk. Sunspot
growth in the region has slowed and some magnetic simplification may
have occurred since yesterday. New Regions 614 (S05W76), 615
(N17E64), and 616 (N08E71) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Region 609.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 May 118
  • Predicted 17 May-19 May 120/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 16 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 007/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 006/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/008-008/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.