Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. During the period,
Region 1169 (N17W75) produced a few low-level C-class events
including a long-duration (LDE) C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z. The flare
was still in progress at the time of this writing. Associated with
this LDE was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
at 16/1912Z. A preliminary plane-of-sky estimate indicated a
velocity near 500 km/s. The region maintained its beta-gamma
magnetic classification as it approached the west limb. New Region
1173 (S28E39) emerged on the disk as a bi-polar C-type group. The
Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90-day mean are estimated for today
(16 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1169 for the next two
days (17 – 18 March). On day three (19 March), activity is expected
to be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE satellite
indicated solar wind velocities averaged about 370 km/s while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at
+1 to +5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17 – 19 March).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 25/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 095
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 090/085/080
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01