Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 17, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 742 (S06W50)
remains the most complex group on the sun, but has produced only
B-class x-ray events. SXI imagery shows an active region just
behind the southeast limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for C-class flares from Region 742.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active on 17 March
due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled
is expected on 18 March, with a return to quiet to unsettled
expected on 19 March.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Mar 105
  • Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 100/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-010/012-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/10
  • Minor storm 20/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/15
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.