Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 742 (S06W50)
remains the most complex group on the sun, but has produced only
B-class x-ray events. SXI imagery shows an active region just
behind the southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for C-class flares from Region 742.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active on 17 March
due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled
is expected on 18 March, with a return to quiet to unsettled
expected on 19 March.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Mar 105
- Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 100/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/10
- Minor storm 20/15/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/20/15
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
