Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 16, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 573
(S12E20) produced the largest flare during the period, a B7 x-ray
event occurring at 16/1551Z. Region 570 (S14W66) remains a magnetic
beta-gamma complex. Newly numbered Region 574 (S02E70) has yet to
fully rotate into view for a good analysis. An eruptive prominence
occurred on the northwest limb, which began at 16/1530Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 570 and 574 both have the potential
to produce C-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 110
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.