Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 573
(S12E20) produced the largest flare during the period, a B7 x-ray
event occurring at 16/1551Z. Region 570 (S14W66) remains a magnetic
beta-gamma complex. Newly numbered Region 574 (S02E70) has yet to
fully rotate into view for a good analysis. An eruptive prominence
occurred on the northwest limb, which began at 16/1530Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 570 and 574 both have the potential
to produce C-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 110
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01