Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the
past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region
1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the
number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was
numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares
likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three
sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28
nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around
0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around
425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock
passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT
with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,
reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress
at the time of forecast.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the
CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 80/60/40
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 135
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 017/020-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/05
Minor storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 55/40/05