Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06, L=290) produced a C2.8 at 16/1423 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 600 km/s to 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Jun 075
• Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 075/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 017/028
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01