Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 775 (N10W86)
produced an M4.0 flare at 16/2022 UTC with associated Type II (989
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 170 sfu Tenflare and a CME were
also associated with this event. Region 775 also produced a long
duration C1.7 flare at 16/0905 UTC. Region 779 (S17W05) continues
to show growth, but is developing more slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for another M-class flare from Region 775
as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Transient material associated with the CME activity on 14 June
impacted the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/0830 UTC. A
short-lived period of southward IMF Bz to near -16 nT resulted in a
major storm from 0900 to 1200 UTC. A greater than 10 and greater
than 100 MeV proton enhancement began following today’s M4 flare. At
the time of issue, the protons were slowly rising, but had not yet
reached event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with isolated minor storming on 17 June due to
the CME activity on 14 June. Conditions should decrease to
predominantly unsettled on 18 June, with quiet to unsettled
conditions expected on 19 June. The greater than 10 and greater than
100 MeV protons are expected to exceed event thresholds early in the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
- Class M 10/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 90/20/05
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Jun 098
- Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 095/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 014/021
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 018/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 018/025-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 25/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/25
- Minor storm 30/15/10
- Major-severe storm 15/05/05
