Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1254 (S22E36) produced the largest flare of the
period, a B6 event at 16/1705Z. The remaining regions on the visible
disk remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (17-19 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, has remained
nominal, around 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for day one (17 July).
An increase from quiet to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on
days two and three (18-19 July) as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 094
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 094/092/092
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01