Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N20W19) has
shown little change during the past 24 hours with only low-level
B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with one isolated
period of unsettled conditions during the period. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued decline in
solar wind speeds with an average below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19 July).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 077
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 076/075/075
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01