Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from 595 to 530 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19 July).

III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Jul 065
• Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 008/008-005/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01