Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17 – 19 July).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Jul 073
- Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 011/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01