Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1402 (N28E53)
produced a long duration event (LDE) early on 16 January. The LDE
began at 16/0236Z, reached a maximum at 16/0444Z and ended at
16/0646Z. A partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the ENE limb,
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0342Z with an initial
radial velocity of about 793 km/s. Model output indicated the
potential for a glancing blow from the CME beginning late on 19
January. Other activity included a C5/Sf flare from Region 1401
(N17E51) at 16/1038Z. Both Region 1401 and 1402 doubled in area as
they continued to rotate onto the visible disk. New Region 1404
(N12W29) emerged on the disk as a D-type group, while new Region
1405 (N13E65) rotated onto the disk as an H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (17 – 19 January), particularly from the east limb complex of
spots.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated intervals of active to minor storm conditions at high
latitudes. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, ranged between 350 – 400 km/s through 16/0900Z. At that
point, a gradual increase in wind speeds to about 500 km/s was
observed with a corresponding southward dip to near -10 nT in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active periods, on day one (17 January). Day two (18 January)
should see a return to mostly quiet levels. By day three (19
January), the field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through
a majority of the day. Late on 19 January, an increase to quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected due to
anticipated effects from a glancing blow from the 16 January CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 140
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 145/150/155
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/008-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor storm 10/01/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01