Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 January 2011

By SpaceRef Editor
January 16, 2011
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1147
(N27E65) produced isolated to occasional B-flares. Region 1147 is
currently classified as a Dso-Beta group with 5 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels during the period (17-19 January) with a
chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (17 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (18 January), due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected again on day three
(19 January).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 080
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/082
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.