Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N29W57) has decayed, both in areal coverage
and spot number, but retained its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels. B-class flares and isolated C-class
flares are expected. There is also a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (17 January). On day
two (18 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (19
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 084
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 084/082/082
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/05
Minor storm 01/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01