Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 16 2239 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 938 (N02E22) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C4/1n event occurring at 16/0242Z and a C1 event occurring later in the period at 16/1611Z. This region continues to show steady decay in sunspot area and exhibits a magnetic beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 938 continues to exhibit the potential for producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with occasional periods of active conditions on 17 and 18 January due to the high speed stream. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19 January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
- Class M 05/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Jan 079
- Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 014/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 012/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
