Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 847 (S08W21) produced several low-level B-class flares. Region 846 (N06W44) has remained quiescent.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Active conditions followed the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Jan 084
• Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 085/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01