Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E28)
produced a C1.2 flare at 15/2304Z. New region 542 (N11E54) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily increased to above 600 km/s by the end of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 17 and
18 January and could produce isolated minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Jan 120
- Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 125/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 009/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 22/22/22
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 03/03/03
B. High Latitudes
- Active 22/22/22
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 03/03/03
