Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2003

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated
long duration C2 event was observed at 16/1218 UTC. Available image
data does not reflect an exact location for the event at this time.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event during the period.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Jan 145
• Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 140/135/135
• 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01