Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from 550 – 440 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19 February).

III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Feb 070
• Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 006/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01