Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC
from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta
configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions
were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after
0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar
wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in
the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8
to +5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to
unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Feb 113
- Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 110/105/100
- 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 001/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/014
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
