Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 556 (N15W54) produced a
single C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 16/0258Z. Region 554 (S08W43)
continues its gradual decay phase. The remaining regions are small
and simple, and show very little potential for flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated low C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal
hole stream that produced the minor disturbance over the past
several days has declined considerably. Solar wind speed peaked
yesterday near 800 km/s, but gradually decreased to 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Feb 099
- Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 100/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 013/018
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 010/011
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
