Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The only flare in the
past 24 hours was a B4 at 0820Z from Region 1377 (N12E15). Region
1374 (S18W37) remains the largest spot group on the disk but
continues to be stable. New Region 1378 (S17W09) was assigned and
is classified as a D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (17-19
December).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 121
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 122/122/122
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05