Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1135 (N19E17)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 16/0427Z. This region regained
a couple spots today and is classified as a Bxo beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1135.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate a continued decline in solar wind speeds ranging
from 550 km/s down to 450 km/s through the period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (17 December). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three (18-19
December) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 084
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01