Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 16 2202 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
: : : : : : : : : : Corrected Copy : : : : : : : : : :
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 836 (S10W78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.4 flare at 16/1257Z. This region was also the source of multiple B-class flares. No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Dec 086
• Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01