Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 16 2202 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
: : : : : : : : : : Corrected Copy : : : : : : : : : :
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 836 (S10W78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.4 flare at 16/1257Z. This region was also the source of multiple B-class flares. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Dec 086
- Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/01