Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1271 (N15E62) produced
a C1 flare at 16/0025Z. New Region 1272 (S19E67) was numbered today
and produced a B6 flare at 16/1110Z. Another flux region emerged in
the southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk near S17E14 and is
being monitored for growth. All regions were magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class events are likely from both Region 1271 and
1272 with a remote chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was generally about 450 km/s, rising to approximately
600 km/s between 16/03Z to 16/10Z. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from near +5 to -7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 1 (17 August), returning to
mostly quiet conditions on Days 2 and 3 (18-19 August) as the
coronal hole high speed stream effects diminish.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 093
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01