Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
and the visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the summary
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (17 August). An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (18 August) as a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to disturb
the field. A further increase to unsettled to active levels (with a
slight chance for minor storm levels) is expected on day 3 (19
August) as the CH HSS persists.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 069
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  005/005-007/007-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/40
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05