Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. There was no activity of note in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole produced occasional unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. A coronal hole currently near disk center will rotate into geoeffective position on 19 August and produce occasional unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Aug 067
- Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 065/065/065
- 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/20
- Minor storm 05/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01