Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
August 16, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2007
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. There was no activity of note in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole produced occasional unsettled periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. A coronal hole currently near disk center will rotate into geoeffective position on 19 August and produce occasional unsettled to active levels.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Aug 067
  • Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 065/065/065
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/008-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.