Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 16 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W10)
continues to show decay in sunspot area while maintaining a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 797.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into
geoeffective position during the latter half of 15 August.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 17 August.
Activity should gradually decline on 18 August and should be quiet
to unsettled by 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream
moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

• Class M 10/10/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Aug 076
• Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 075/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 012/020-010/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/35/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 15/10/01