Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2003
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C4
at 15/2234Z from just beyond the west limb. Region 431 (S12W26)
continues a slow decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. The delta configuration within the intermediate spots
appears to be simplifying. New Region 435 (S18W41) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active conditions.
Two periods of isolated active conditions were observed. Solar wind
speed has decreased to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with the chance of
isolated active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
- Class M 35/30/25
- Class X 10/05/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Aug 127
- Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/130/125
- 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01