Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 16, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C4
at 15/2234Z from just beyond the west limb. Region 431 (S12W26)
continues a slow decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. The delta configuration within the intermediate spots
appears to be simplifying. New Region 435 (S18W41) was numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active conditions.
Two periods of isolated active conditions were observed. Solar wind
speed has decreased to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with the chance of
isolated active levels.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

  • Class M 35/30/25
  • Class X 10/05/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Aug 127
  • Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/130/125
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/012-008/012-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.