Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 16 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).

III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 108
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10