Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 990 (N27W03) produced a low level B-class flare at 0634Z. This region has decayed to spotless plage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 0600 – 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Apr 070
• Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01