Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Apr 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19 April in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Apr 069
• Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05