Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Apr 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
April 16, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Apr 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare of the period was a B8 from newly numbered Region 595(S09E68).
Region 591(S16W52) continues to show signs of decay but still has
some weak polarity mixing.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 591 and 595 have the potential for C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two periods of
active conditions were observed due to elevated wind speed and a
weak coronal hole influence.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions due to elevated solar wind speeds.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Apr 097
  • Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 100/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 003/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 008/012-006/010-003/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.