Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Apr 2003

By SpaceRef Editor

April 16, 2003

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There were only two
minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted
regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree
filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11
degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and
16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by
SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background
levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in
GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The
coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected
on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third
day.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr