Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Low-level B-class x-ray
flares occurred during the period. Region 1566 (N23W76 – Hrx/alpha)
produced occasional B-class flares as it approached the west limb.
Occasional B-class flares also occurred from a yet-to-be-numbered
small spot group that rotated into view late in the period. Region
1569 (S12W00 – Eao/beta-gamma) showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 1572 (N15W70 – Axx/alpha) was numbered. There was no
Earth-directed CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 – 3 (16 – 18 September) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels around midday on day 1 (16
September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the filament disappearance observed on 13
September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (17 September) as CME effects subside. A
further decrease to quiet levels is expected on day 3 (18
September).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 098
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 011/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/10/05