Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 September 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
September 15, 2010
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A B9 x-ray event
occurred at 15/1715Z. The source appeared to be a region rotating
around the southeast limb. Region 1106 (S20E18) appeared to be
slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (16-18 September). C-class events are likely
from the new region rotating onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods observed at some locations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (16-17
September) due to possible effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Day three (18 September) is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 081
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 083/085/086
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-007/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.