Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 September 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomantic field is expected
to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, for the next
two days (16-17 September). This increased activity is expected as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. The
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels on the third
day (18 September).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 069
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 008/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01